I think I have proven that Gurim is in fact favored. However, I have yet to propose the mechanism through which they are favored. For one, I am certainly not claiming that there actually is a conspiracy theory that exists to favor Gurim. That would be ridiculous and unreasonable. In fact, I am not even suggesting that there is a subconscious feeling amongst the judges that compensating Gurim with “extra love” is appropriate.[1] After a G-chat conversation with Daniel Hoffman we agreed that the reason why Gurim does unreasonably well is...drum roll please…the score sheet.
The current rubric is just plain old silly. This rubric favors aydot like Gurim that don’t add any embellishments to their songs, but usually sing on key and don’t scream because their songs are so easy. They don’t have the same energy that is expected from older aydot. But why does this matter? I’m going to let you in on a secret. Singing/Not Screaming and Singing on Key are worth 10 points each, where embellishments, which include all of the cute gimmicks, stand-ups and sit-downs, and hand motions are only worth five. That is basically 20 free points for Gurim. Now, when it comes to embellishments, I know there is a huge difference between the “painting someone green and running all over the Beit Am” type of embellishment, and the “making a song more complex” type of embellishment. Aydot should be rewarded if they execute a harder song or harder motion; just like in ice-skating.[2]
Just to note though, over the past two years Gurim has not placed in any song…
Besides Gurim’s tendency to be favored, there are also other cool things I learned from the data.
Kerem: Kerem is the most consistent. Kerem has placed in the top three every year for the last eight years. However, their consistency correlate with overall victories. They have only won Zimriah once, and usually have to settle for a close second. For the theory on why Kerem doesn’t win but usually gets second place, I will go with what is conventional: there is a lot on Kerem’s plate during the middle of camp compared with Maalot and Leviim. They have to run Zimriah completely by themselves from start to finish and there usually is not a lot of time for them to practice. On the other hand, Kerem always has the heart. They always want to win the most and usually get so close.
Maalot: The theory that Maalot does the best because of the combination of being older andhaving a lot of time is true, but not by much. Yes, Maalot does well and if I had to put my money on a particular aydah I would choose them, but realistically, Kerem or Leviim can win any given year. However, there have been some epic performances in Maalot, and sometimes, Maalot can just blow you away.
Leviim: After looking at the numbers, Leviim’s performance surprised me the most. They almost have the same amount of points as Maalot and Kerem, with fewer appearances in the top 3. More interesting though is that they have never placed third overall. These two facts demonstrate to me how polarizing Leviim’s performance can be. Depending on the year, they can be fantastic, or dreadful. It fully depends on the particular aydah.
Arayot: There are very few years when Arayot performs well. In fact they have only placed twice in the past ten years, which statistically makes them the worst bet to win Zimriyah. They do somewhat resemble the Leviim’s performance in that they either do really well or really poorly, except they generally tend to underperform. I guess when puberty is reeling its ugly head, and boys are cracking every other note, it is pretty hard to win a singing competition.
Kfirim: Besides the past two years when Betty Bauman and Toby Kuperwaser lead Kfirim to second and third place victories, Kfirim is generally abysmal. The largest aydah, with the most amount of energy doesn’t translate when you need them to sit down for a peulah and learn songs. Surprisingly, statistically speaking, they are not the worst at Zimriyah in terms of points nor the amount of times that the aydah has placed. This shows me that Kfirim, if motivated correctly, can actually compete. [1] Even though I could make a strong argument for this compensation. Here would be my logic if I were to propose this: there are always 5 Gurim kids on the sides who don’t know any words or hand motions. It is not a big deal, but it’s the truth. If there were five kids in Kerem on the side not singing, they would come in last place, no question.
[2] Thanks Hoffman for the analogy.
With all due respect, I don't think you have "proven that Gurim is in fact favored". You statistical analysis in your previous post is quite interesting and I love the use of a standard deviation when talking about Zim. But all your analysis demonstrates is patterns in the past (any correlation in your data does not prove a correlation.) Gurim being 'favored' in my mind indicates something that is unfair or purposeful, and your data does not support that.
ReplyDeleteBefore going into why I think you haven't proven your point, I think it's worth noting that, yes Zim is a competition, yet the point is for everyone to have fun. So maybe it doesn't matter that Gurim may score better than they deserve.
Returning to why I don't accept that Gurim is favored. 1) You bring up the way the score sheets are made and points are allocated. This is no secret and the older aydot could easily take this into account when they prepare. Embellishments are not part of the scoring because it's a song festival. You may think that is wrong, but that is no secret.
2) In comparing Gurim to Kfirim and Arayot I would expect Gurim to score the best. Arayot must struggle with chanichim at different stages of puberty and because they are older they are held to a higher standard and often compared with leviim. Kfirim is just massive and hard to manage. Even Leviim is often compared with maalot since they are only a year apart. In contrast, Gurim can only be compared with Gan and the huge uncontrollable Kfirim. (Let us ignore the Gan sweep of '89). When you look at each aydah and compare them to their neighbors I would expect Gurim to perform well. Gurim is also cute. Is it unfair to subconsciously give Gurim points for being cute compared with the 'embellishments' of older aydot? Maybe not.
Overall, I agree with Avi's comment regarding to your other post. "It's not necessarily that Gurim is favored or given an unfair advantage. It's just that most of the aydot are judged against their potential." And there is nothing wrong with each aydah being judged against their potential- In fact I think that's the only way that is fair.
Something I've always found hilarious:
ReplyDeleteWhen 2KX was in younger kfirim, we were so bad that they created a "ruach award" just for us.
I don't think it's happened before or since. :)
I disagree with your point about singing on key and not screaming giving Gurim 20 free points. It's hard to teach 60 (mostly) distracted and disinterested 8-10 year olds to sing in sync (even harder to teach them to sing *NSync!) and at the proper tone and volume.
ReplyDeleteIf anything, orchestrating Gurim's Zim performance is likely more difficult than orchestrating the older aydots', with the possible exception of Kfirim, because of their size.
Your comment that "just to note, though, over the past two years Gurim has not placed in any song…" is just dead wrong...for example, this past summer, we "tied" for 3rd place in Shir Aydah...gurim "tying" has become a recent phenomena which I like very much even though it may piss off other aydot because it's obvious that we only tie so we don't cry and yet, we can still say we placed!
ReplyDelete